Monday Night Football features Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle for the ultimate revenge game narrative. How should you bet on it? Let’s break it down.
- Spread: Broncos -6.5 (-110) | Seahawks +6.5 (-110)
- Total: 44 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Wilson returns to Seattle where he had great pass-catchers in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, but Pete Carroll didn’t seem to want to let “Russ Cook” in Seattle’s run-first offense. Now with the Broncos and under new head coach Nathaniel Hackett, will we see Wilson air it out? I expect we will. Bear in mind, Hackett was the offensive coordinator in Green Bay for the past two seasons, where Aaron Rodgers won consecutive MVPs.
SI Sportsbook has the Broncos heavily favored on the Moneyline at -300. That’s a lot of juice and I’m not interested in laying $300 for a $100 return, but I am interested in taking the Broncos -6.5, which pays out $100 for every $110 wagered.
Amongst active quarterbacks, Russell Wilson has the best deep ball passing rating in the league, ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, and he’s the second best of all time, behind only Jeff Garcia. Meanwhile, Courtland Sutton had the second-best average depth of target (ADOT) in the league last year playing with Teddy Bridewater. Wilson and Sutton together could be a power couple. Jerry Jeudy, who is known for his route-running, has his receiving yards prop set at 57.5 and his catch prop at 4.5. It looks like the oddsmakers expect the ball to be in the air. And why wouldn’t they? Seattle is starting a rookie CB opposite Sidney Jones and Wilson should be able to capitalize.
The running back room for Denver boasts Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, both of whom rushed for 900+ yards in 2021 and they combined for 12 rushing TDs. They should have no trouble with the Seattle run defense that allowed 14 rushing TDs in 2021.
On the flip side, Seattle will be starting Geno Smith; sadly that one simple line should be enough analysis when describing what to expect from the Seahawks passing attack.
Rashaad Penny is projected to carry the load for the offense. Penny averaged 92 yards and one touchdown per game across the last six games of 2021.
I expect Wilson and the Broncos to easily cover this spread. As for the point total, I expect Denver to put up some big points, but have concerns about the Seahawks ability to score. For that reason, I am passing on betting the game total.
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